Understanding the potential for change in the future frequency and intensity of wildfires is critical to improving wildfire resilience and anticipating impacts to different economic and social sectors.
Climate Engine has developed a model to project wildfire risk across the US and Canada at 100 m/pixel by perturbing near-historical fire risk with projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) statistics from future climate projections, leveraging NEX-GDDP CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) future projection data.
The Climate Engine Wildfire Risk Projections are intended to be used to assess the projected
risk from wildfire at locations across the US and Canada, at 2050 and 2080 for
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario SSP5-8.5. The wildfire risk values in these projected maps can be compared to the Wildfire Risk values in the associated historical product to show the change in conditions over time. Projected changes to the wildfire conditions in future years are derived from quantified changes to fire weather extremes, and do not account for future changes to vegetative fuel sources or land cover evolution, which are extremely difficult to predict.