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Wildfire - Projected Risk, US and Canada, SSP5-8.5 (v1.0)


This is a projection dataset for the US and Canada capturing the future projected risk from wildfire for the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

wildfire, fire, projection, hazard, fuel, regional, hazard, future, cmip6
Temporal Extent:
2045-01-01 to 2085-01-01
US and Canada
100 meters
Product Version:

Technical Description

Understanding the potential for change in the future frequency and intensity of wildfires is critical to improving wildfire resilience and anticipating impacts to different economic and social sectors.

Climate Engine has developed a model to project wildfire risk across the US and Canada at 100 m/pixel by perturbing near-historical fire risk with projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) statistics from future climate projections, leveraging NEX-GDDP CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) future projection data.

The Climate Engine Wildfire Risk Projections are intended to be used to assess the projected risk from wildfire at locations across the US and Canada, at 2050 and 2080 for
Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario SSP5-8.5. The wildfire risk values in these projected maps can be compared to the Wildfire Risk values in the associated historical product to show the change in conditions over time. Projected changes to the wildfire conditions in future years are derived from quantified changes to fire weather extremes, and do not account for future changes to vegetative fuel sources or land cover evolution, which are extremely difficult to predict.

This dataset contains the following fields:

  • risk: The wildfire risk score at that location. This is a value in the range 0-100, and can be directly compared to the historical risk values to assess the relative change in risk.
  • risk_category: The values range from 0-4 representing low to extreme fire risk. These are categorized risk_index values, where observations of historical fires have been used to build a classification system into Low, Moderate, High, Very High, and Extreme risk categories.