Description
This dataset provides a projection of wildfire risk by combining projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) statistics from future climate projections with high resolution fuel load data. The data is intended to be used to assess the projected risk of conditions that are good for wildfires under two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2030-2090.
Technical Description
Understanding the potential for change in the future frequency and intensity of wildfires is critical to improving wildfire resilience and anticipating impacts to different economic and social sectors.
Climate Engine has developed a model to project wildfire risk globally at ~309 m/pixel by perturbing near-historical fire risk with projected Fire Weather Index (FWI) statistics from future climate projections, leveraging NEX-GDDP CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) future projection data.
The Climate Engine Wildfire Risk Projections are intended to be used to assess the projected risk from wildfire at locations globally, from 2030-2090 for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SS2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The wildfire risk values in these projected maps can be compared to the Wildfire Risk values in the associated historical product to show the change in conditions over time. Projected changes to the wildfire conditions in future years are derived from quantified changes to fire weather extremes, and do not account for future changes to vegetative fuel sources or land cover evolution, which are extremely difficult to predict.
This dataset contains the following fields:
- fire_risk_score: The wildfire risk value at a point location. The wildfire risk values in these projected maps can be compared to the Wildfire Risk values in the associated historical product to show the change in conditions over time. Projected changes to the wildfire conditions in future years are derived from quantified changes to fire weather extremes, and do not account for future changes to vegetative fuel sources or land cover evolution, which are extremely difficult to predict. These values range from 0.0 to 193.8.
- fire_risk_class: The fire risk classification for each value. Values are categorized into a 1-5 risk classification system, ranging from Low to Extreme, based on an analysis of historically observed fires in relation to the fire_risk_score . The risk classifications are defined as follows:
- fire_risk_score < 28
- fire_risk_score < 59
- fire_risk_score < 67
- fire_risk_score < 76
- fire_risk_score ? 76