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Sea Level Rise - Projected Risk, Global, Low (v1.0)


This is a projection dataset for global land areas capturing the future risk from sea level rise in decadal time steps out to 2150 using the sea level rise under a low emissions scenario.

sea level, global, risk, climate, ocean, projections, sea, level, future
Temporal Extent:
2020-01-01 to 2150-01-01
2 km
Product Version:

Technical Description

These sea level rise risk projection products capture projected risk of decadally-averaged sea level rise exceeding the altitude of the local bathymetry for all locations globally. These risk maps reflect the future long-term risk from sea level rise globally at decadal time steps for a low emissions scenario.

These maps compare sea level rise projections developed by NOAA to a high-resolution global bathymetry map from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). The spatial scale for this dataset is roughly 1.8 km/pixel and data are available for the years 2020 - 2150.

The probability (between 0-1) that decadally-averaged sea level rise exceeds local bathymetry at each grid point is provided for the combinations of NOAA sea level rise scenario and time horizon.

This dataset contains the following fields:

  • Probability elevation < SLR: Probabilities of sea level rise exceeding bathymetry at pixel locations for the specified combination of future decade and scenario. Technically unitless but represents the probability of exceedance assuming a normal distribution for sea level rise, with mean and standard deviation given by the NOAA sea level rise projections. A ten-year window centered on the decade is used to calculate the probabilities. This is a value between 0-1.