The SpatiaFi Hurricane Risk Forecast product captures the near-term risk from tropical cyclones/hurricanes over the next 10 days, using an ensemble of forecasted storm tracks. The forecast is based on the ECMWF HRES Tropical Cyclone Forecasts, which are produced daily. This forecast produces multi-ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone tracks, which are then used to generate a probabilistic forecast of tropical cyclone likeliness based on agreement between the ensemble members.
For ensemble members with multiple forecast time steps, we create a track by joining the storm location centroids, which is then buffered out by 1 degree (~ 111 km at the Equator). These forecast tracks are converted into probabilities based on the number of ensemble members which agree that the storm track footprint will cover that location. The forecast is updated daily, and generated for all active global storms. Storms for which there are less than 2 ensemble members present in the forecast period are not included in the final forecast.