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Extreme Heat - Human Risk, Projections, Decadal, Global (v2.1)


The extreme heat projection product uses the same method as the historical product but is forward looking. This data is intended to be used to assess the projected extreme heat conditions under two future scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) from 2030-2090.

thermal, global, risk, heat index, projections, heat, extreme heat, regional, hazard, future, humidity, temperature, cmip6
Temporal Extent:
2025-01-01 to 2095-01-01
11 km
Product Version:

Technical Description

The global Extreme Heat Human Risk Projection products capture projected risk of extreme heat across the globe using well-established thermal stress metrics. These risk maps reflect the future risk from extreme heat in global land regions at decadal time steps for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. These maps use future CMIP6-based projections of temperature and humidity to calculate likely changes to extreme heat conditions into the future. The spatial scale for this dataset is 11 km/pixel and data is available for the years 2030 – 2090 (where windows centered around the year are used to calculate the projected extreme heat conditions). Extreme heat frequencies (between 0.0-1.0) are provided for the combinations of SSP and time horizon.

This dataset contains the following fields:

  • extreme_heat_frequency: Frequencies of extreme heat occurrence at pixel locations over the future time period. This looks at the frequencies of extreme heat occurrence at pixel locations over the future time period used for calculation. For instance, a value of 0.5 would indicate that half of the days were under extreme heat conditions for that location. This is a value between 0.0 and 1.0.
  • extreme_heat_risk_class: The extreme heat risk classification for each value. Values are integers from 1 to 5 representing the following classes: Very Low Risk (1), Low Risk (2), Moderate Risk (3), High Risk (4), and Very High Risk (5). Values are categorized using the 44th, 67th, 84th, and 94th percentiles of the
  • extreme_heat_frequency field, exclusive of '0' values.