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Extreme Cold - Projected Risk, Global, SSP2-4.5 (v2.0)


This is a projection dataset for global land areas capturing the future risk from extreme cold in decadal time steps out to 2090 using the wind-speed adjusted Wind Chill for the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

thermal, global, risk, cold, wind chill, projections, regional, hazard, ssp245, future, temperature, cmip6
Temporal Extent:
2025-01-01 to 2095-01-01
11 km
Product Version:

Technical Description

The global Extreme Cold Risk Projection products capture projected risk of extreme cold across the globe using well-established thermal stress metrics. These risk maps reflect the future risk from extreme cold in global land regions at decadal time steps for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5. These maps use future CMIP6-based projections of temperature and wind speed to calculate likely changes to extreme cold conditions into the future. The spatial scale for this dataset is 11 km/pixel and data is available for the years 2030 - 2090 (where windows centered around the decadal years are used to calculate the projected extreme cold conditions). Extreme cold probabilities (between 0-1), expected number of extreme cold days per year (out of 365), and rescaled extreme cold index values (between 0-100) are provided for the combinations of SSP and time horizon.

This dataset contains the following fields:

  • extreme_cold_probability: Probabilities (or alternatively frequencies) of extreme cold occurrence at pixel locations over the historical period of record used for calculation. Technically unitless but represents counts of extreme cold occurrences divided by the total number of data points. This is a value between 0-1. For instance, a 0.5 score for 2050 would indicate that half of the days between 2045 and 2055 were under extreme cold conditions for that location. In other words, there is a 50% probability that the location would be in extreme cold conditions on any given day in that decade.
  • avg_extreme_cold_days_per_year: The average number of days per year over the historical period of record used for calculation that are classified as extreme cold days. This is a value between 0-365.
  • extreme_cold_index: The extreme cold probabilities but rescaled to between 0 and 100 based on the minimum and maximum values in the map. This allows for a simple relative scoring between pixel locations based on their historical extreme cold risk values. This is a value between 0-100.