Description
This dataset provides projected annual reserve margins across U.S. NERC assessment regions from 2025 to 2034. It reflects expected trends in electricity resource adequacy given anticipated generator retirements and demand growth. The data can be used to assess risks of supply shortfalls, reduced grid reliability, and declining reserve margins driven by the accelerated retirement of fossil-fueled and nuclear generation, as well as the challenges of integrating new capacity fast enough to meet future demand.
Technical Description
The Electric Reserve Margins, Projected, Annual, US (v1.0) dataset provides annual projections of anticipated electricity reserve margins across U.S. NERC assessment regions, representing the balance between available generation capacity and expected peak demand. Reserve margin is a key indicator of system reliability and resource adequacy: higher margins suggest greater capacity buffers to meet demand fluctuations, while lower margins indicate potential reliability risks.
Values are derived from NERC’s 202 Long-Term Reliability Assessment and reflect anticipated changes in
generating capacity and demand growth, as well as the effects of planned and potential generator
retirements. The dataset includes three key fields: reserve_margin, reserve_margin_change_from_2024,
and reserve_margin_risk_category. The reserve_margin field expresses the projected percentage of capacity
over/under peak demand for each year and region, while reserve_margin_change_from_2024 captures the annual
deviation from the 2024 baseline, indicating trends in system tightening or loosening over time.
The reserve_margin_risk_category field classifies each value into one of five risk levels based on an
established NERC Reference Margin Level (RML) of 15%: (1) above 15% reserve margin (low risk), (2) 10–15%
(moderate risk), (3) 5–10% (elevated risk), (4) 0–5% (high risk), and (5) below 0% (critical risk,
indicating potential shortfalls).