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Drought - Projected Risk, US, Canada and Mexico, SSP2-4.5 (v1.1)


This is a projection dataset for the US, Canada and Mexico capturing the future risk from drought in decadal time steps out to 2090 for the SSP2-4.5 scenario.

drought, us, canada, mexico, risk, projections, spei, agriculture, hazard, vegetation, ssp245, future
Temporal Extent:
2025-01-01 to 2095-01-01
US, Canada and Mexico
4 km
Product Version:

Technical Description

These drought risk projection products capture projected risk of drought across the US, Canada and Mexico using well-established drought monitoring metrics. These risk maps reflect the future risk from drought across the region at decadal time steps for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-4.5.

These maps use future CMIP6-based projections of the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to calculate likely changes to drought conditions across the region into the future.
The spatial scale for this dataset is 4 km/pixel and data is available for the years 2030 - 2090 (where windows centered around the year are used to calculate the projected drought conditions).
Both drought probabilities (between 0-1) and rescaled drought index values (between 0-100) are provided for the combinations of SSP scenario and time horizon.

This version makes a minor change to the previous version (v1.0) to improve coverage of the drought projection maps over coastline areas.

This dataset contains the following fields:

  • drought_probability: Probabilities (or alternatively frequencies) of drought occurrence at pixel locations for the specified combination of future decade and scenario. Technically unitless but represents (counts of drought occurrences / total number of data points). A ten-year window centered on the decade is used to calculate the probabilities. This is a value between 0-1.
  • drought_index: The drought probabilities (for the combination of decade and scenario) but rescaled to between 0 and 100 based on the minimum and maximum values in the map. This allows for a simple relative scoring between pixel locations based on their projected drought risk values.